Day 4 Pick: San Francisco over 81.5
So I've been blissfully rolling through these picks in alphabetical order all week, making my decision process about as complicated as that first offer on "Deal or No Deal." But that A-to-Z strategy leads me to Cincinnati today and with a number of 76.5, I'm not touching it. So now I have to scour the NL to find my last team (tomorrow will be the Mets pick). It brings me to a team that I cautiously think will be better than most people think.

The San Francisco Giants.

Sports Illustrated has them finishing last in the NL West. Vegas has them at 35-1 to win the World Series. And their over-under number pegs them as a sub-.500 team. And I think they'll be better.

Obviously, the Barry Zito signing was a big deal in the Bay Area and there's no reason to believe the lefty shouldn't benefit from the shift to the Senior Circuit. But that's not all the Giants did in the offseason. They added Dave Roberts to add little spark to the top of the lineup and solidified themselves behind the plate with the signing of Bengie Molina. And yes, Barry Bonds is back and bruising the ball in spring training.

There's no doubt there's some age on this team and this might be their last run for a few years as they rebuild around Zito and their young, talented arms like Matt Cain, Noah Lowry and Tim Lincecum, who impressed in spring training but will start the season in Triple-A. Still, I think they can make a run this year in an unpredictable division. And for me to be right, all they have to be is .500. I think they will.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks Arizona over 77.5
Tuesday: T.J. picks Kansas City under 67; Steve picks Atlanta over 80.5
Wednesday: T.J. picks Texas over 82.5; Steve picks Cubs under 85.5
Thursday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks San Francisco over 81.5
Friday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????